In this week's edition you will find:
- Where We Are
- What Was Important About Last Week
- What We Are Watching For This Week
- A Word On Discipline
Where We Are:
What the market is saying:
Earnings season blows an undeniable stench as broad market selling puntuates the week
The Sellers' Edge is intact as multiple distribution days gather on the major indexes.
As mentioned in previous reports, technical weakness in Financials, Retail and Transportation threaten to become downside leaders for the broader market.
Not to mention the Home Builders and REIT's that have already nose-dived this year.
But the broader market's tendency to rise through bad times can't be denied. Pullbacks and corrections are healthy, there's no reason to believe this rough patch won't be short-lived.
Technology and Biotechnology have provided strong leadership for the past month. Should the Bull regain its footing, we're looking for these sectors to blaze the way.
But until we see selling volume dry up and buyers retake control, the best we can do is protect our accounts by not letting profits turn to losses and laying low on new buys.
Technically speaking:
 |
|
Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com |
| Index |
Change |
% |
YTD |
Action |
| DJIA |
-571.06 |
-4.1 % |
8.5 % |
gets slammed back to its 50-day MA. |
| Nasdaq |
-80.52 |
-2.9 % |
12.8 % |
pulls back sharply, though comfortably above its 50-day MA. |
| S&P 500 |
-61.17 |
-3.9 % |
5.8 % |
sells off to just above its 50-day MA. |
| Russell 2000 |
-42.38 |
-5.0 % |
1.4 % |
crumbles to close below both of its major MA's. |
Volume indications turn bearish with the Dow racking up four distribution days, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq making three distribution days and the Russell 2K posting two distribution days.
 |
U.S. Dollar Index ($DXC ) |
finds another new low. |
 |
Gold & Silver Miners Index |
consolidates at its highs for the year. |
 |
Consumer Index ($CMR ) |
falls to just above its major MA's. |
 |
Cyclical Index ($CYC ) |
also falls to just above its major MA's. |
 |
Technology Index ($DJUSTC ) |
pulls back as it holds well above its 50-day MA. |
 |
Semiconductor ($SOX ) |
falls further below its major MA's. |
 |
Software Index ($GSO ) |
puls back after a new high, holding well above major MA's |
 |
Telecom Index ($XTC ) |
consolidates above its major MA's, though under summer's highs. |
 |
Banking Index ($BKX ) |
fall to just shy of August's lows, under its major MA's. |
 |
Broker Dealer Index ($XBD ) |
falls further under its major MA's. |
 |
Retail Index ($RLX ) |
also falls further under its major MA's. |
 |
Healthcare Index ($HCX ) |
puls back above its major MA's. |
 |
Biotechnology Index ($BKX ) |
pulls back after hitting a new high for the year. |
 |
Pharmaceutical Index ($DRG ) |
closes below its 200-day MA, well off the spring's highs. |
 |
REIT Index ($DJR ) |
sells off below its major MA's. |
 |
Transportation Index ($TRAN) |
sells off under its major MA's. |
 |
Airline Index ($XAL ) |
also sells off under its major MA's. |
 |
Defense Index ($DFX ) |
pulls back, though trending above major MA's. |
 |
Energy Index ($IXE ) |
pulls back after hitting a new high for the year. |
| *Arrows denote sector's position above or below its 40-week exponential moving average. |
What Was Important About Last Week
STOCKS:
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported Q3 (Sep) loss of $0.49 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.12 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.61). Revenues rose 18.4% year/year to $1.63 bln vs the $1.52 bln consensus.
- Capital One Financial (COF) reported Q3 (Sep) loss of $0.21 per share, $0.04 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.25). Co reaffirmed guidance for FY07. It sees EPS of $5.00 vs. $4.89 consensus.
- Google (GOOG) reported Q3 (Sep) earnings of $3.91 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.14 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $3.77. Revenues including TAC revs rose 57.3% year/year to $4.23 bln vs the $4.13 bln consensus.
- Gilead Sciences (GILD) reported Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.45 per share, $0.06 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.39. Revenues rose 41.4% year/year to $1.06 bln vs the $1.04 bln consensus.
- eBay (EBAY) reported Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.41 per share, $0.08 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.33. Revenues rose 30.4% year/year to $1.89 bln vs the $1.83 bln consensus.
- Washington Mutual (WM) reported Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.23 per share, $0.06 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.21.
- E*Trade Financial (ETFC) reported Q3 (Sep) loss of $0.14 per share, $0.24 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.10. Co issued in-line guidance for FY07 (Dec). It sees EPS of 0.75-0.90 vs. $1.10 consensus.
- Citrix Systems (CTXS) reported Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.41 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.38. Revenues rose 25.9% year/year to $350 mln vs the $339.9 mln consensus.
- IBM (IBM) reported Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.68 per share, in-line with the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.68. Revenues rose 6.6% year/year to $24.12 bln vs the $24.12 bln consensus.
- Intel (INTC) reported Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.31 per share, $0.01 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.30. Revenues rose 15.6% year/year to $10.1 bln vs the $9.61 bln consensus.
- Yahoo! (YHOO) reported Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.11 per share, $0.03 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.08. Revenues ex TAC rose 14.5% year/year to $1.28 bln vs the $1.24 bln consensus.
- Genentech (DNA) reported Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.73 per share, $0.01 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.72. Revenues rose 22.0% year/year to $2.91 bln vs the $2.92 bln consensus.
ECONOMY:
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% in September versus a consensus expected rise of 0.2%. The CPI is up 2.8% versus a year ago.
- Housing starts declined 10.2% in September to 1.191 million units at an annual rate, well below consensus expectations of a 1.280 million rate. Starts are down 30.8% versus a year ago.
- Industrial production increased 0.1% in September, exactly as the consensus expected. In the past three months, industrial production is up at a 3.2% annual rate.
- Manufacturing production also increased 0.1% in September. Manufacturing production is up at a 1.7% annual rate in the past three months. The production of high-tech equipment grew 0.4% in September and is up 16.8% versus a year ago.
- Capacity utilization was unchanged from a downwardly revised 82.1%, which was the level the consensus expected. In the manufacturing sector, capacity utilization declined to 80.4%.
What Were Looking For This Week
Key earnings releases:
- MONDAY:
American Express Company
(AXP),
Apple Inc. (AAPL),
Texas Instruments (TXN)
- TUESDAY:
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN),
Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB),
Broadcom (BRCM),
Coach, Inc. (COH),
Microchip Technology (MCHP)
- WEDNESDAY:
Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (AEM),
Amgen (AMGN),
Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (CME),
Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH),
ConocoPhillips (COP),
General Dynamics (GD),
Genzyme Corporation (GENZ),
Merrill Lynch (MER),
The Boeing Company (BA),
The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc. (NDAQ)
- THURSDAY:
Aetna Inc. (AET),
Baidu (BIDU),
Microsoft (MSFT),
Motorola Inc. (MOT),
Wendy's International (WEN)
- FRIDAY:
Fortune Brands
(FO), Waste Management
(WMI)
On the economic front we have potential market movers with:
- MONDAY:
NY Empire State Index
- TUESDAY:
Net Foreign Purchases,
Industrial Production,
Capacity Utilization
- WEDNESDAY:
CPI,
Housing Starts,
Building Permits,
Crude Inventories,
Fed's Beige Book
- THURSDAY:
Initial Claims,
Leading Indicators,
Philadelphia Fed
- FRIDAY:
none
The Following Sections Are On Our Home Site:
This Week's Word On Discipline:
" Something in human nature causes us to start slacking off at our moment of greatest accomplishment. As you become successful, you will need a great deal of self-discipline not to lose your sense of balance, humility and commitment." --
H. Ross Perot
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